Predictive assessment of socio-economic damage to coastal areas of Irkutsk oblast as a result of Lake Baikal level fluctuations
T.I. ZABORTSEVA, G.B. DUGAROVA, O.V. EVSTROPIEVA, O.V. GAGARINOVA, O.A. IGNATOVA, P.V. ROGOV
V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
Keywords: Irkutsk reservoir, zone of possible submergence, socio-economic damage, capital construction projects, lost profit
Abstract
This paper presents for the first time the results of practice-oriented investigations for determining the magnitude of socio-economic damage to coastal areas of Lake Baikal as a result of the highest rise of its level (457,85 m according to the Pacific Reference Frame). The study area includes the coastal areas of Baikal, and some areas of the Irkutsk reservoir of Irkutsk oblast within the Slyudyanskii, Irkutskii and Olkhonskii administrative districts. When compiling the list of sites falling within the zone of potential submergence, use was made of the open public database of the Unified State Register of Immovable Property, and a package of working large-scale cartographic products and images. Expeditions made it possible to update, correct and complement the working register. The list of economic facilities and infrastructure (about 200), falling within the zone of potential submergence, includes line structures, enterprises of social services, and households. A calculation of economic damage to facilities of socio-economic activity is presented within the framework of the recommended technique of assessing the probable damage from the harmful effect of water, and assessing the effectiveness of preventive hydroeconomic measures (as of the year 2006). The amount of damage (for facilities and main sectoral groups) is corrected by using the deflator index (as of 2022 in the “construction” position on the territory of Irkutsk oblast)). Potential losses (lost profit) are illustrated by an example of recreational activity on the coast of Baikal within the boundaries of Irkutsk oblast. The possible considerable losses have been revealed in the recreational sphere as a result of direct damage to the facilities and infrastructure as well as lost profits due to a loss of attractiveness of coastal areas, including beach zones. A preliminary quantitative assessment of socio-economic damage to coastal administrative districts of Irkutsk oblast as a result of water level fluctuations in Lake Baikal and in the Irkutsk reservoir may well provide a basis for developing program-strategic directions and measures and for seeking managerial decisions of a preventive nature for minimizing negative impacts.
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