TRANSFORMATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY IN THE LIGHT OF AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT TENDENCIES
N.N. Yashalova1, T.K. Molchanova2,3, D.A. Ruban3,4
1Cherepovets State University, Cherepovets, Russian Federation
2National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
3Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
4Moscow State University of Technologies and Management, Moscow, Russian Federation
Keywords: агропромышленный комплекс, климатический риск, национальные стратегии, прогнозные оценки, экологическая экономика, agro-industrial complex, climatic risk, national strategies, forecast values, ecological economics
Abstract
The importance of agriculture for a given economic system determines risk related to the global climate change. Analysis of the statistical data (impact of agro-industrial complex in the world and national economies and dynamics of temperature regime) shows that the relation between temperature changes and significance of agro-industrial complex in economy have determined the character of risk during two past decades and will continue doing this in the future. The risk can be partly-compensated (when the importance of agro-industrial complex decreases) and non-compensated (when the importance of agro-industrial complex remains stable or increases). Risk transformations, i.e., fundamental changes of the risk character, are quick (up to two years) and themselves form a kind of challenge for development of the world and national economies. The studied risk is a subject of governance within the frame of national strategies. Particularly, the countries with strong agrarian orientation of their economies can stimulate industrial growth to decrease risks linked to the influence of the global climate change.
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