Regional studies of environmental management risks in the conditions of modern climate change: basic approaches and methods of assessment
O. G. NEVIDIMOVA1, E. S. VOLKOVA1, M. A. MELNIK1, E. P. YANKOVICH2
1Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Tomsk, Russia
2Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: environmental management risks, dangerous natural processes, climate tensions, damage, the Tomsk region
Abstract
The article deals with the issues of methodological support and methodological support for the analysis of risk-forming situations in environmental management at the regional level. The principles and criteria for assessing natural hazards and risks are presented, taking into account the geosystem situation, natural-climatic and socio-economic conditions of the territory. The article provides information on the development and application of methodological approaches in the comprehensive assessment of the state of the natural environment and the likelihood of environmental and socio-economic risks. On the example of the taiga territories of Western Siberia and Tomsk region, the dynamics of dangerous situations, their classification, spatial differentiation and probability of occurrence are revealed. The features of the sectoral approach (forest management, agriculture) to the assessment of environmental risks associated with changes in the natural and climatic conditions of the territory are determined. The article presents the experience of GIS analysis and zoning, examples of estimated mapping, which take into account the impact of dangerous and unfavorable processes on various branches of environmental management. It is concluded that the degree of natural and climatic risk of the Tomsk region is increased.
|
