Home – Home – Jornals – Contemporary Problems of Ecology 2025 number 2

In this work, the dynamics of the temperature profile in the soils of Central Siberia were restored and analyzed based on data from weather stations, revealing the patterns of the long-term (1963-2022). The relationship between the temperature regime of soil in the permafrost zone and the long-term dynamics of air temperature during winter and summer was quantified. The current trends in soil temperature regimes along the depth gradient were evaluated in relation to climate changes in the region. An increase in the average annual temperature for each soil layer was typical for all variants of the degree of permafrost closure. The increase in the average annual soil temperature is manifested up to a depth of 320 cm, with a growth coefficient of 0.66-0.70 °C/10 years. Maximum values of the coefficients (0.67-1.64 °C/10 years) are typical for the permafrost zone of the coast of Central Siberia. At the same time, the average annual soil temperature parameters correlate with the dynamics of air temperature. The correlation is most significant for the upper soil horizons (r ~ 0.8) and naturally decreases with the depth of the soil profile. This pattern is most prominent in the coastal zone of continuous permafrost (>75° N). Predictive temperature profiles of soils were obtained with reference to permafrost zoning in Central Siberia. The projection of soil temperature regimes until 2050 indicates the potential for significant modifications in seasonally thawed layers. According to our estimates, the increase in thickness could be between 3-12 cm/10 years.