Assessment of the influence of anthropogenic factors on the global climate in the industrial period based on spectral decomposition of late Holocene paleotemperature reconstructions for various regions of the world
V. V. Babich
V.S. Sobolev Institute of Geology and Mineralogy Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Science, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: climate, paleo-reconstruction, global warming, anthropogenic factor, greenhouse effect, empirical modeling.
Abstract
Climate has a huge impact on human living conditions and plays a large role in its history. There are numerous examples of serious social upheavals of local and regional proportions over the past few millennia associated with climate change. Therefore, modern global warming and its causes is one of the most pressing and most controversial issues in both the scientific and public community. In this work, an attempt was made to assess the degree of possible participation of the anthropogenic component in the formation of climate in various regions of the world during the industrial period (since 1850) by analyzing data on the past states of the climate system at a sufficiently long time interval. Using harmonic analysis, empirical models of climate change over time were constructed for these regions. By extrapolating these models to the industrial period, "natural" temperature change scenarios were obtained, taking into account only natural causes and excluding anthropogenic factors. It was found that in all studied regions, instrumentally recorded temperature values significantly exceed the "model" values. On average, during the industrial period, according to "natural" scenarios, air temperature globally should have increased by ~0,02°C, but in reality, the temperature over this time interval increased by ~0,94°C. This deviation began to appear around 1920, gradually intensifying thereafter. These facts can be considered as a manifestation of the anthropogenic factor, which makes a certain contribution to modern global warming.
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