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Geography and Natural Resources

2025 year, number 3

Global disaster risk index for analyzing multiple risks in the Earth’s changing climate

S.B. KUZMIN
V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
Keywords: hazardous natural processes, natural disasters, risk, multi-risk, changes in the natural environment, countries of the world

Abstract

The relevance and necessity of a global approach to natural disaster risk assessment are determined. In recent years, it has become increasingly obvious to society, scientists, management structures, businesses, and politicians. It has been shown that various dangerous natural (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods) and anthropogenic (industrial accidents, pollution and degradation of landscapes, depletion of natural resources) processes constantly threaten millions of people around the world. These processes differ greatly from each other, but the assets exposed to their impact are basically the same: population, economy, territories, ecosystems, infrastructure, and the environment. It is concluded that the results of the impact on them should be considered as a dynamic process, examples of which are rapid urbanization, rural depopulation, changes associated with the actual evolution of settlements themselves, declining quality of life, etc. In this aspect, the main task for researchers is to find innovative, as simple and effective methods as possible for collecting, organizing, storing and transmitting data on such impacts, taking into account their inherent spatio-temporal dynamics. The objective of this article is to analyze the challenges of implementing an impact model on a global scale, suitable for various natural hazards within a dynamic and scalable framework, based on the method of estimating the global risk index for countries of the world. A roadmap is being developed for the use of the global impact model that will continually evolve over time through input and updating of data, including consideration of uncertainties. It is established that such a model will form the basis for a global assessment of vulnerability and risks from natural disasters, providing reliable standardized information on assets and entities exposed to various natural hazards.