M.YU. MALKINA, R.V. BALAKIN
Lobachevsky National Research State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
Keywords: налоговые поступления, факторный анализ, отраслевая структура экономики, налоговая нагрузка, распределение налогов, tax revenues, factor analysis, sectoral structure of the economy, tax burden, tax distribution
The article studies tax revenues of the consolidated budgets in constituent entities (subjects) of the Russian Federation and their determinants. The purpose of the current research is to assess how much various economic sectors contribute to incremental tax revenue growth in the sub-federal budgets of Russian subjects and their factorial decomposition. In order to complete this goal, we develop a four-factor additive-multiplicative model of tax revenues generation in regions. Within this model, tax revenues at the sectoral level of region are determined by the sector’s share in the regional economy (structural factor), its tax burden (fiscal factor), the level of tax revenues internal absorption in the economy (inter-budgetary factor), and the size of gross regional product (factor of scale). To assess the contribution of these factors in the regions and in the country at the aggregated and disaggregated levels, we use a mixed factor analysis including proportional, logarithmic, and integral methods. The study reveals that the largest contributors to incremental tax revenue growth in the consolidated sub-federal budgets of Russian subjects have been the five largest regions, as well as import-export: manufacturing industries, joint financial activities and real estate transactions, trade and mining. Changes in tax burden and internal absorption have, on average, decreased tax revenue inflow to the budgets in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, whereas growing GRP and altering sectoral structure increased them. The difference in the influence of these factors at the aggregated (national) and disaggregated (average regional) levels is explained by the levels of their interregional inequality. The results of the study are applicable to assessing potential tax revenues in regions, taking into account a possibility to manage their determinants.
The article considers the main features of the economic crises of1998, 2009, and 2015, and analyzes the dynamics of the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the regions in and out of the crisis. It is shown that the foundation of all crises is structural factors: imbalances in the sectoral structure, a weak financial sector of the economy, and weak institutions. The resource-oriented economy model proved unsustainable to external shocks. In all the cases, the crisis drop began in regions most dependent on external economic conditions: metropolitan agglomerations and oil-and-gas producing regions. However, a deeper decline in production and slow economic recovery were observed in regions focused on domestic demand. After the 2009 crisis, the magnitude off luctuations in growth rates decreases in all federal districts. Production does not drop as far during the crisis, but its subsequent rise is also low. We evaluate the impact of national trends and features of production structure in regions on the regional economic dynamics. The article shows an increased interregional differentiation of growth rates under crisis and an increased value of regional factors proper. The resilience of regional economies to crisis shocks is determined by regional factors contribution. We consider the proportions of income distribution between households and businesses, as their changes determine the dynamics of consumer and investment demand. It is shown that transferring income towards businesses is not a factor for investment growth. The regional structure of investment demand has no direct correlation with the structure of business income. The peculiarity of the 2015 economic crisis is that final demand adapted to external shocks and the reduced post-devaluation ruble exchange rate by compressing both investment and consumer demand. The real sector of the economy shows the greatest resistance to the crisis; pre-crisis industrial indicators in 2018 are exceeded in all federal districts.
A.N. Bufetova1
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk National Research State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: регионы России, производительность труда, пространственная автокорреляция, пространственные внешние эффекты, матрица вероятностей перехода, финальное распределение, regions of Russia, labor productivity, spatial autocorrelation, spatial externalities, transition probability matrix, final distribution
One of the advantages of the spatial concentration of economic activity is an increase in its efficiency, which can have a positive impact on efficiency dynamics at neighboring economies. However, geographical proximity does not automatically guarantee the diffusion of positive spatial effects. Nevertheless, these processes do largely determine changes in the configuration of the economic space and the further perspectives for its development. The article reflects the results of the study on the role of spatial externalities in the dynamics of labor productivity, regional economy’s efficiency indicator. The main research method is creating transition probability matrices and analyzing their properties. It is shown that high inequality of labor productivity in regional economies prevents the manifestation of positive spatial externalities. Substantial differences in the level of labor productivity between regional economies both worsen the relative dynamics of lagging regions and adversely affect the relative dynamics of the leading ones. Reducing the disparities contributes to the diffusion of positive externalities, accelerates the growth of labor productivity in less efficient regions, and fosters it in the leading regions. The obtained results show that the regional policy aimed at curbing the increase in regional inequality and creating conditions to expand interregional cooperation and collaboration is more adequate to the current situation.
A.YA. TROTSKOVSKY1, A.YU. YUDINTSEV2, M.A. SUNDEEVA3 1Altai State University, Novosibirsk 2Altai State University, Barnaul, Russia 3Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: агропромышленные регионы, структура экономики, экономическая специализация, типология регионов, agro-industrial regions, economy structure, economic specialization, typology of regions
The article summarizes the first stage of fairly large research aimed at obtaining new knowledge covering the influence of traditional factors of regional development (region’s economic specialization and its position in the center-periphery model) on the advancement of territorial socio-economic systems under current conditions. The paper gives a general idea of agro-industrial regions as a special type of territorial socio-economic systems with their intrinsic economic specialization, nature of the settlement system, living standard and social behavior, largely due to the «inherited» development features. We propose a science-driven methodology to define agro-industrial regions in Russia. We describe in detail a procedure for creating attribute space and present requirements for each indicator and their system as a whole. The article presents how the proposed methodology has been tested in regions of the Russian Federation. The article composes two groups of closely related indicators revealing the orientation of Russian regions towards industrial and agricultural development. The regions have been classified in a two-dimensional space where the axes are the degrees a region’s agrarian-ness and industrial-ness. We expand on the territorial-sectoral structure of the Russian economy and identify agro-industrial regions. The findings of this study are correlated with the results of previous works of similar nature.
E.V. Mamonova
General of the Innovative Medicine and Technology Center (Medical Technopark), Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: инновационный кластер, кластерная политика, базовые принципы системного подхода, системное проектирование инновационных кластеров, innovation cluster, cluster policy, fundamentals of the system approach, system design of innovation clusters
The article considers modern theories of cluster development and cluster policy. We assess clustering trends in foreign countries and examine pilot clusters in the Russian Federation. We describe the structure of the theoretical foundation of system bases for innovation clusters. The article presents an approach to creating integrated innovative clusters as a complex set of interconnected elements and subsystems. It defines key systemic principles providing a basis for innovation clusters. The system design principles of integrated multi-level innovation clusters are determined as follows: consistency; centralized operation; non-additivity; balancing between the clusters’ main and supporting; maximum reasonable efficiency; harmony among projects with different deadlines; maintaining a critical mass of cluster members; overcoming the barriers of subject areas in innovation; continuous step-by-step development. The article designs a three-level innovation mega-cluster, as well as an innovation cluster structure that satisfies the principles of centralized operation and overcoming the barriers of subject areas in innovation.
S.V. SOBOLEVA, N.E. SMIRNOVA, O.V. CHUDAEVA
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: депопуляция, миграционный отток, половозрастная структура населения, рождаемость, ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, старение населения, демографическая нагрузка, коэффициент замещения, depopulation, migration outflow, sex-age structure of the population, fertility, life expectancy, population ageing, demographic load, replacement rate
The article presents a comparative analysis on the dynamics of the size and sex-age structure of the population in the Siberian Federal district and its regions within modern Russian trends, as well as an impact assessment regarding their changes and risks for socio-economic development in the future. We used the multi-regional demographic analysis of time series as a research method. The study was conducted distinguishing the population of urban and rural settlements, with its information base comprised of Rosstat data for 1989-2017. The article shows that, against the background of a general decline in the SFD population, especially in rural areas, negative trends in the sex-age structure of the population manifested themselves in the reduced pre-working age population considering their numbers and proportion, in the transition from working-age population increase to a more rapid decline compared to nationwide figures, in the rising rates of growth in the size and proportion of the post-working age population. This leads to the aging of the entire population and its working-age segment, to an increase in the demographic load on the working age population, to sexual asymmetry, to reduced numbers and aging of fertile women. Such long-term changes pose a threat not only to the demographic potential but also to the socio-economic development and future both of the region and the country.
Yu. I. Kolesnikov1, K. V. Fedin1,2, L. Ngomaizve2 1Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia 2Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: надземный трубопровод, диагностирование, акустический шум, изгибные стоячие волны, натурный эксперимент, компьютерное моделирование, Above-ground pipeline, diagnostics, acoustic noise, flexural coincident waves, full-scale experiment, computer modeling
The full-scale experiments on acoustic noise recording on the surface of an above-ground pipeline are carried out on operating heating main. The tests were performed in the pipeline branches with different style attachment between pipe and support-rigid (the pipe is welded to the support) and flexible (the freely supported heat-insulated pipe). The experiments show that collection of recorded noise amplitude spectra makes it possible to determine natural frequencies and forms of flexural coincident waves generated by noise in the pipeline spans. Both frequencies and forms of the waves depend on the style of the pipe attachment at the span ends, which may be used in diagnostics of pipeline branches by acoustic noise to detect damaged stiffness of the pipe-support attachment and/or instability of the supports. The computer modeling using the finite element method yields flexural wave frequencies similar to the experiment results. The distributions of nodes and antinodes of flexural coincident waves along pipeline spans at different style pipe-support attachments qualitatively agree with the earlier lab test data.
A. V. Verkholantsev1, R. A. Dyagilev1, D. Yu. Shulakov1, A. V. Shkurko2 1Mining Institute, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia 2Syrievaya Kompaniya, Sterlitamak, Russia
Keywords: сейсмическая безопасность, сейсмический эффект взрыва, сейсмически безопасное расстояние, грунтовые условия, резонансные эффекты, направленность излучения, прогноз сейсмического воздействия, Seismic safety, seismic effect of blasting, seismically safe distance, ground conditions, resonance effects, radiation directivity, seismic effect prediction
The monitoring results on earthquake loads from blasting in the Shakhtau open pit mine in 2016-2017 are presented. The integrated model of influence exerted by the parameters of drilling-and-blasting and the environment on the surface earthquake loading is developed, which allows high-precision prediction of the seismic effect value at any point of a study area. The estimates of of the short-blasting initiation errors are given. It is concluded on the promising nature of continuous blasting monitoring in difficult geotechnical conditions when reliability of standard seismic effect valuation procedures is insufficient.
Hong Lin1,2, Gao Dameng1,2, Wang Jiren1,2, Zheng Dan1,2 1Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin, China 2Key Laboratory of Mine Thermodynamic Disaster & Control of Ministry of Education, Huludao, China
Keywords: внезапный выброс угля и газа, эксперимент, адсорбция азота, уравнение Дубинина - Радушкевича, источник энергии, заполнение микропор, многослойная адсорбция, Coal and gas outburst, nitrogen adsorption experiment, Dubinin-Radushkevich equation, power source, micropore filling, adsorption of multilayer
To find out the power source for coal and gas outburst, the experimental instrument ASAP2020M was used for nitrogen adsorption experiment. The experiment was carried out at the temperature of 77 K, in which the activity of nitrogen can be reduced at least and the results of the test were more accurate. The experimental data were fitted by the function of f(x)=axb. The total volume of micropores and the degree of micropore volume filled by nitrogen were calculated by the Dubinin-Radushkevich equation. In unexploited coal body, the gas desorption occurs in a unit, it could trigger a desorption of the neighboring units of coal body. When it reaches a certain level that can push the coal body forward, the coal and gas outburst would happen. For the material containing micropores and mesopores like coal, the inflection point was the demarcation point of micropore filling and adsorption of multilayer.
V. I. Klishin1, V. N. Fryanov2, L. D. Pavlova2, G. Yu. Opruk1 1Institute of Coal, Kemerovo, Russia 2Siberain State Industrial University, Novokuznetsk, Russia
Keywords: угольный пласт, кровля пласта, подкровельная толща, напряжения, дезинтеграция, метод конечных элементов, численный эксперимент, Coal seam, seam roof, trop coal, stresses, disintegration, finite element method, numerical experiment
The geomechanical mode, of the powered roof support-top coal-roof rock system is developed. For investigation of disintegration processes in top coal of thick seam, numerical modeling with finite element discretization of a study domain is carried out using the authors’ original code. The computational experiment reveals stress distribution in rock mass, as well as evaluates position, shape and size on uncontrolled caving zones in tope coal.