A.S. NOVOSELOV, A.S. MARSHALOVA
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: управление, регион, муниципальное образование, институциональная структура, моделирование, стратегическое планирование, administration, region, municipality, institutional structure, modeling, strategic planning
Subsection: Regional Policy and Economic Issues of Federalism
The article analyzes the existing system managing the regional and municipal development. It is shown that for many years this administration system has exhibited its inability to ensure the implementation of periodically stated strategic objectives for the development of the Russian economy and the execution of regional policy. The evidence for the current system's ineffectiveness is an almost complete absence of positive results in achieving these objectives and executing the defined priorities of economic development in regions and municipalities. We give the rationale for an integral institutional system to manage the strategic development of a region and its municipalities, providing means for designing necessary planning and forecasting documents and their further implementation. The administration system is presented as a set of interconnected mandatory subsystems, which include organizational structures (an insti-utional system), planning and forecasting documents, and a control mechanism (instruments of impact). We identify problems that the existing administration system is unable to resolve or solves ineffectively. The article also assesses the role that an institutional administration system plays in designing and carrying out strategic directions of region socio-economic development and provides recommendations on how to create an institutional system to manage the development of a region and its municipalities. We propose directions on forming an integral system to manage regional and municipal development, as well as present the basic elements of the state and municipal administration mechanism under the new conditions of socio-economic development that may serve as a foundation for advancing metho-do-ogical and methodical aspects of regional administration in the Russian Federation.
S.V. KAZANTSEV
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: безопасность, защищенность, оценка уровня безопасности, обобщающий (интегральный) индикатор, регион, security, protection, assessment of security level, generalizing (integral) indicator, region
Subsection: Economic Issues of Regional Development
The paper considers three methods for estimating the security levels of the country and its regions. The work is timely and important as a response to several strategic documents on transport, economic, food, and information security recently adopted in the Russian Federation. Our analysis of methods used in practical calculations of security levels is built according to the following scheme. First, we fixate an object which security is to be estimated, then define the main notions used by the method developers and determine indicators applied in estimation. Finally, we discuss ways to normalize these indicators and formulas to calculate an integral indicator that would generalize a group of indicators or the indicators of an object as a whole, and show their advantages and disadvantages. The conclusion is made that all the considered approaches can be helpful in estimating the levels of economic security of Russia and its federal subjects. Their comparison allowed identifying the main assessment stages, which are as follows: determination of a set of initial indicators, their quantification, normalization, calculation of the generalizing indicators for groups of normalized indicators, subjects of the Russian Federation, and the whole country.
K.P. GLUSCHENKO1,2, M.A. KARANDASHOVA2 1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 17, Ac. Lavrentiev av., Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia 2Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 2, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: индекс стоимости жизни, пространственный индекс цен, фиксированный набор товаров и услуг, реальный доход, cost-of-living index, spatial price index, fixed basket of goods and services, real income
Subsection: Economic Issues of Regional Development
Based on price levels (cost-of-living indices) across Russian cities, the article computes regional price levels relative to the Russian average over 2009-2015. A regional price level is defined as a weighted average over region's cities where there is a statistical observation of consumer prices. Shares of the population in relevant cities (as at the beginning of year) serve as the weights. We compare the obtained results with approximate estimates of regional price levels that are applied in many publications. These estimates are based on the cost of the fixed basket of goods and services for cross-regional comparison of consumer purchasing power. The comparison makes it possible to conclude that the approximate method provides an adequate accuracy, as 90% ofdeviations fall into the range of ±5%. Regional price levels obtained are applied to estimating real (i.e. comparable between regions) incomes per capita relative to the national average over 2009-2015.
V.G. BASAREVA1, N.N. MIKHEEVA2 1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia, e-mail 2Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nakhimov av., 47, Moscow, 117418, Russia
Keywords: Сибирский федеральный округ, факторы экономического роста, пространственная структура, потребительский рынок, инвестиции, консолидированные бюджеты, Siberian Federal District, growth factors, spatial structure, consumer market, investment, consolidated budgets
Subsection: Economic Issues of Regional Development
The article considers the task of restoring economic growth in the Siberian Federal District (the SFD). It is shown that for the most indicators the regions in this area have worsened their positions over the period between 2014 and 2016. The district's shares in the regional structures ofproduced GRP, level of employment, and estimated fixed assets decreased. An emerging issue is a decline in the technological level of the industry. Local consumer market and investment in fixed assets experience greater losses than the rest of Russia. Having analyzed the dynamics ofpublic debt and deficits of federal subjects' consolidated budgets, we conclude that the SFD regions do not have sufficient financial resources for effective policy actions to stimulate economic growth. The article gives recommendations on how to reduce the impact of the existing negative trends in different economic areas.
O.I. GULAKOVA1, YU.S. ERSHOV1, N.M. IBRAGINIOV1,2, T.S. NOVIKOVA1,2 1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia 2Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 1, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: инфраструктурный проект, прямые и косвенные эффекты, межрегиональная межотраслевая модель, коммерческая и общественная эффективность, infrastructure project, direct and indirect effects, interregional input-output model, commercial and public efficiency
Subsection: Economic Issues of Regional Development
The article presents the results of research on the development and application of methodological tools for an integrated assessment of the impact that a large-scale infrastructure project has on the development of the regional and national economy. The methodological framework of this study is a combination of two major areas of analysis and evaluation of project efficiency: project analysis techniques and methodological approaches to studying the economy in view of spatial and cross-sectoral aspects while using an interregional input-output optimization model (OMMM). When assembled, these areas provide an estimate of indirect project efficiency, as well as obtain results in terms of the main macroeconomic indicators at the national and macro-regional levels. We present the results of calculations carried out for the first time on a real project with reliable information in the framework of suggested approach to estimate the public efficiency of infrastructure projects. The article introduces a comprehensive assessment of the impact of ESPO-2 on the economy of Russia and the Far Eastern Federal District with regard to redistri-butive and indirect effects resulting from the project.
The article examines changes in fertility that took place in the regions and federal districts of Russia between 1990 and 2014. To estimate the changes, we used the b-convergence and the s-convergence. Over the period under review, differences at the regional level increased and then decreased again due to the socio-economic peculiarities of Russia's development. At the federal districts level, the overall situation was similar except for less variation. There were no significant convergence models for the Ural and Siberian federal districts; the regions of the Northwestern and Volga federal districts were diverging; in other federal districts, the regions were converging. Although demographic policies greatly affected population behavior, we recognize a need for additional measures aimed at reducing differences between regions because of «clubs» of regions forming on fertility basis, which may have a negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia. The article concludes with recommendations concerning the state demographic policy, namely for developing measures meant to change reproductive intentions in low-fertility regions.
T.N. GAVRILYEVA1, E.A. KOLOMAK2,3 1Institute of Engineering & Technology, North-Eastern Federal University, Petrovsky st., 2, Yakutsk, 677000, Russia 2Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia 3Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 2, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: население, система расселения, Республика Саха (Якутия), город, сельское поселение, пространственная концентрация, количественная оценка, population, settlement system, Sakha Republic (Yakutia), city, rural settlement, spatial concentration, quantitative estimation
Subsection: Social Issues of Regional Development
The paper analyzes the changes in the spatial distribution of population in Yakutia between 1897 and 2015; the considered indicators are the urban and rural population, the density of population in urban and rural settlements, and the impact of activity types on the settlement system. The quantitative estimations for the level and dynamics of the spatial concentration of population are based on the Theil index. We discover differences in the dynamics of population concentration and characteristics of the settlement system throughout the periods of region's development. Market relations have redirected the spatial structure of economic activity in Yakutia, despite a series of constraints resulting from climate, economic, and national factors. The transformation of the settlement system in Yakutia is heterogeneous: the population in cities tends to concentrate which leads to urban agglomerations, while rural settlements demonstrate a trend towards size convergence.
D. A. SUBETTO1,2, L. B. NAZAROVA3,4,5, L. A. PESTRYAKOVA6, L. S. SYRYKH5, A. V. ANDRONIKOV7, B. BISKABORN3,4, B. DIEKMANN3,4, D. D. KUZNETSOV8, T. V. SAPELKO8, I. M. GREKOV2
a:2:{s:4:"TEXT";s:833:"1Northern Water Problems Institute of the Karelian Research Centre, RAS, 185030, Petrozavodsk, Alexander Nevsky ave., 50 2Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia, 191186, Saint-Petersburg, emb. Moika, 48 3University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 14476, Potsdam-Golm, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25 4Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473, Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, A43 5Kazan (Volga) Federal University, 420000, Kazan, Kremlevskaya str., 18 6Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University, 677000, Yakutsk, Belinsky str., 58 7Czech Geological Survey, 15200, Prague, Geologicka str., 6 8Institute of Limnology, RAS, 196105, St. Petersburg, Sevast’yanova str., 9";s:4:"TYPE";s:4:"html";}
Keywords: палеолимнология, озера, донные отложения, север Евразии, Российская Арктика, базы данных, palaeolimnology, lakes, bottom sediments, Northern Eurasia, Russian Arctic, databases
We present a review of the modern information on palaeolimnological investigations in Russian part of Northern Eurasia. The results from the north-western part of the European Russia are presented in more details because this part of the country is better studied by palaeolimnological methods. Conditions of lacustrine sediment deposition around the Late Pleistocene/Holocene boundary are discussed together with the role of different external factors in formation of chemical composition of lake sediments, including such factors as volcanic activity and large meteorite impacts. Results of major paleoclimatic and paleoecological reconstructions across the northern Siberia are presented. A special attention is paid to the databases of biotic and abiotic parameters of the lakes as аn important basis for the reconstructions of climatic and ecological changes during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene
E. V. BEZRUKOVA1,2, A. A. AMOSOVA1, V. M. CHUBAROV1, A. L. FINKELSHTEIN1, N. V. KULAGINA3 1Vinogradov Institute of Geochemistry, SB RAS, 664033, Irkutsk, Favorskiy str., 1A 2Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography, SB RAS, 630090, Novosibirsk, Acad. Lavrentiev ave., 17 3Institute of the Earth Crust, SB RAS, 664033, Irkutsk, Lermontov str., 128
Keywords: Северная Бурятия, оз. Баунт, геохимические и палинологические индексы, палеоэкологические реконструкции, природная среда, средний-поздний голоцен, Northern Buryatia, Lake Baunt, geochemical and pollen records, palaeoecological reconstruction, environment, Middle-Late Holocene
The article presents the first high resolution geochemical and pollen records from sediments of the Lake Baunt (55'11'15" N and 113'01'45" E), located within the continuous permafrost zone. Those records were used to obtain the first reconstructions of the environment and climate of the north Buryatia including the weathering conditions in the catchment area in the post-optimal time of Holocene. Over the last 7000 years the environment and climate on the north-east of Buryatia were heterogeneous. A relatively warm and dry climate was reconstructed for the end of the Holocene Climatic Optimum between 6900 and 6000 yrs BP. Later at about 6000-1500/1000 yrs BP the climate became colder that might have led to weakening of chemical weathering processes at more intense permafrost processes. The climate over the last 1500-1000 yrs BP was colder than today. The calculated environmental indices show different values in sediments of relatively warm and relatively cold intervals and reflect sedimentation conditions that have been controlled by climatic changes.
N. G. RAZZHIGAEVA1, L. A. GANZEY1, T. A. GREBBENNIKOVA1, T. A. KOPOTEVA2, L. M. MOKHOVA1, A. M. PANICHEV1, E. P. KUDRYAVTSEVA1, Kh. A. ARSLANOV3, F. E. MAKSIMOV3, A. Yu. PETROV3, M. A. KLIMIN2 1Pacific Geographical Institute FEB RAS, 690041, Vladivostok, Radio str., 7 2Institute of Aquatic and Ecological Problems, FEB RAS, 680000, Khabarovsk, Dikopoltsev str., 56 3St.-Petersburg State University, 199034, St. Petersburg, Universitetskaya emb., 7/9
Keywords: климатические изменения, поздний голоцен, озерно-болотные обстановки, палеоландшафты, пожары, Сихотэ-Алинь, climatic changes, Late Holocene, lacustrine-swamp invironments, paleolandscapes, fires, Sikhote-Alin
We reconstructed environmental changes that took place during the development of the Izyubrinye Solontsy Lake that belongs to the Solontsovskie (Shanduyskie) lake system located in the midlands of the Eastern Sikhote-Alin. Lakes were formed by landslides from the paleovolcano slopes. We performed a high resolution reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental changes using multi-proxy data (botanical, diatom, spore-pollen, radiocarbon analysis) from a peat section. We revealed high variability of the lake and the surrounding swamp palaeoenvironments in response to climate change in the late Holocene. Peat accumulation started ca 4000 14С yrs BP. The main peat-forming plants were Sphagnum mosses and herbs, except for the period between 2330 and 1530 14C yrs BP (2360-1480 cal. yrs BP) when the swamp was overgrown by larch forests and predominantly woody peat accumulated. Forest ecosystems on the lake coasts were quite stable. During the warm phases the role of fir and broadleaved trees increased in coniferous forests that include cedar; during the cooling intervals birch became more widespread. During the last millennium secondary forests occupied the lowlands. We determined ages of paleofires.