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Pskov oblast and Jewish Autonomous Oblast are used as an example to demonstrate changes in agriculture of the border areas of the Russian Federation. It is shown that between western and eastern regions there are differences in the development of agriculture that are caused not only by agro-climatic conditions but also by the socioeconomic situation. In Pskov oblast, considerable regional funds are invested in the development of large agricultural production, whereas less attention is given to farming than in Jewish Autonomous Oblast with a high proportion of farms that emerged in connection with disintegration of large agricultural enterprises. In Pskov oblast, agricultural enterprises were closed or joined agricultural holdings that work for Moscow or St. Petersburg. A decline in plant-growing implies a reduction in traditional crops (flax and grains). In Jewish Auto nomous Oblast, agricultural organizations dispersed among private enterprises (farms and households), which is explained by the development of small-scale trade. An increase in soybean cultivation is due to its demand in the Russian and international sales markets. The two oblasts show a decrease in livestock population (especially horned cattle) as the cost of keeping is high. In Pskov oblast, most of the livestock are kept in agricultural organizations, whereas in Jewish Autonomous Oblast in private house holds. Cross-border cooperation of Pskov oblast and Jewish Autonomous Oblast also has some features in common. In the two oblasts, foreign investors invest in agriculture. In the former oblast, however, the projects envisage long-term cooperation that includes the development of rural areas located in the zone of influence of the programs; in the latter oblast, investments are for short-term periods with the purpose of obtaining profits from the territory, without any interest shown in its development.

Some issues related to the development of the municipal formations of Irkutsk oblast are considered. It is found that the human population is characterized by the highest sensitivity to impacts of different types, and this factor was used to develop methods of situation analysis of the population response to changes in the socioeconomic environment. The models and methods used are based on notions and equations of reliability theory. The resulting integrated indicator makes it possible to estimate the degree of use of the demographic potential. For the municipal formations of Irkutsk oblast the indicators of integrated life hazard under the existing conditions were calculated on the basis of series of data on the population size for a long period of time. Calculations involve determining the degree of life hazard from the value of demographic response to the impact of multi-level factors of the natural and socioeconomic environment. Results of the calculations identify different trends in the demographic development of cities and districts of Irkutsk oblast discriminating between normal and critical states. A comparative analysis is made of the findings in order to ascertain the characteristics of the transformation of the spatial organization of the territory for the last several decades. General trends for groups of districts and cities, and also some features of differences are revealed. The causes thereof are linked to the inhomogeneity of the region’s socioeconomic conditions. The method of situation analysis presented in this study provides a means of assessing the trends of further development or degradation of settlements. The value of an integrated hazard serves as the indicator of changes in the socioeconomic situation. The suggested technique can be used for historical-demographic comparative analysis and mapping of different regions and stages of their development.

Presented are the results obtained from the radar profiling of the Peretolchin glacier in the Munku-Sardyk mountain range in the south of Siberia (June 2014 and May 2016) using georadar “Oko-2” with the ABDL “Triton” antenna unit operating at the radiation frequency of 50 and 100 MHz. The ice thickness was determined from the profiles and the ice volumes from the cross-sectional areas and distances between profiles. The ice volume was calculated for the body of the Peretolchin glacier to be 0.007 ± 0.0019 km ³ . An analytical method was also used to determine the ice volume according to the type and area of glacier. It is established that the correlation between the volume and the area of the glaciers is expressed by a power function V = kS ^p . The mean ice volume, calculated with due regard for different coefficients, was 0.0061 km ³ . The GlabTop model that takes into account the cross-sectional form of the glacier was used to infer the ice volume: the mean volume for two cross-sections (para bolic and ellipses) was 0.0073 km ³ . It is established that for 110 years since the start of the investigation into the morphology of the Peretolchin glacier, it has increased twice in its length and in area, its volume has decreased by a factor of 3.7, and the lower boundary of the open part of the glacier has risen 184 meters for that time.

This investigation is concerned with the problem of recognition of glacial landforms in arid mountainous areas of Asia us ing satellite imagery. We examine the territory of the Mongun-Taiga mountain range located at the interface of the Russian Altai, Sayan and Mongolian Altai mountains which has been studied for many years by geographers of St. Petersburg State University. The mountain range is home to modern glaciers totaling about 20 km in area, and its climate aridity is favorable for the preservation of a large body of evidence of ancient glaciation. The theoretical basis for this effort was provided by the idea of glaciogenic complexes, i. e. natural complexes, the morphology and structure of which is formed by modern and ancient gla ciations. Using the morphological differences we identified three groups of glaciogenic complexes and assigned their formation time to MIS 4, MIS 2, and to the Late Holocene. Results from comparing data of glacio-geomorphological and paleogeographi cal studies on the territory of the Mongun-Taiga mountain range with corresponding satellite images were used to develop inter pretation standards for different groups of glaciogenic complexes, forming the basis for compiling the map of glaciogenic com plexes of th second and third order for the entire mountain range. Cartometric measurements were used in obtaining the main characteristics of the glaciers of the Mongun-Taiga for ten different time spans. It is found that during the MIS 4 maximum the glaciers advanced to the piedmonts, and their area exceeded the present-day area by more than a factor of 25, with the firn line depression of about 800 m. The largest areas were occupied by glaciers of southward aspects, which is accounted for by a pre dominance of north-westward moisture-carrying glacial streams at that time. The aspect asymmetry of glaciation persisted during the MIS 2 maximum but it had a valley character. It is established that in the Little Ice Age the area of the glaciers exceeded the present-day area by a factor of 2.4, with the firn line depression of 20 m.

This paper discusses the main properties of models and model assessments forming the notion of their quality, which include the accuracy, reliability and details of the description of approximate model assessments. On the basis of taking into account the entire set of quantitative parameters of these characteristics, the notion of the measure of model quality is introduced. The main property determining the model quality is highlighted, namely the accuracy of model calculation using independent data. Ap proximate estimations of the values of a variable in the interval and probabilistic form are considered, which can be constructed on the basis of data on its values in the past. For probabilistic assessments of the values of the variables, it is suggested that, in addition to the measure of accuracy, the measure of informativity should be used, which is determined in terms of entropies of the corresponding probability distribution functions. In developing the algorithms for assessing the measure of quality, special attention is paid to calculating the parameters characterizing the reliability of approximate model assessments and the models themselves. The reliability is assessed in terms of the probabilities of the events occurring when the model is constructed or used. The measure of probability of the model of dependence determined at the stage of constructing it by using the learning sample is calculated as the product of two probabilities: the measure of confidence to the predictors of a dependent variable, and the mea sure of confidence to the operator describing a dependence of this variable on them. Recommendations are made for assessing these probabilities. N view of the stricter requirements for the reliability of predictive assessments, the algorithm is suggested for increasing it by combining into an ensemble the conditional model and unconditional probability assessments.

The article presents the results from studying and analyzing subrecent spectra of the Transbaikalian region. A palynological analysis is made of pollen spectra of the mountain-taiga and steppe-taiga and steppe zones as well as studying the spectra from different-facies deposits of four key areas. The scheme of vegetation is compiled for each key area, and a detailed analysis is made of the palynospectra. The study revealed special features in the composition of spectra of different vegetation associations and their correspondence to the composition of modern vegetation. It is shown that the spectra faithfully reflect its integral zonal, regional and local peculiarities. A comparative analysis is made of the spectra from deposits of different genetic types. The com positions of the spectra from soil, alluvial and lacustrine deposits are compared. The relationship of pollen from light- and dark-coniferous species is analyzed. Methods of multidimensional statistics are used, including Principal Component Analysis. A fun damental difference is revealed in the composition of spectra for mountain-taiga and steppe landscapes. It is established that the main background in the subrecent spectra for mountain-taiga and steppe areas, respectively, is composed of pollen from woody plants and grasses. An analysis is made of current climatic parameters as well as determining the character of correlation between the composition of the spectra and the main parameters of climate determining the evolution of modern vegetation producing pollen spectra. Important parameters are determined; the mean annual precipitation amount, and the index of continentality which are reliable indicators of change in climatic conditions when carrying out paleoclimatic reconstructions in Transbaikalia. It is established that spectra with maximum content of pollen from dark- and light-coniferous woody plants tend to occur in areas with different mean annual precipitation amounts and with different values of the index of continentality.

Data on rock falls and landslides caused by strong earthquakes in the Zhetysu Alatau, Ile Alatau, Kungei Alatau and Teriskei Alatau mountain ranges on the territory of Southeastern Kazakhstan are presented. The study revealed more than 60 large seismogenic rock falls and landslides, the volume of 25 of them varies from 10 to 100 mil. m ³ , and the volume of the four largest exceeds 100 mil. m ³ . The volume of the largest rock fall in the valley of the Ulken Almaty river in the Ile Alatau moun tain range is estimated at 380 mil. m ³ . The highest density of seismogenic landslides was recorded in the low-mountain zone of the northern slope of the Ile Alatau range where the magnitude 9 earthquake of 1887 caused a massive formation of landslides with the volume totaling more than 400 mil. m ³ and a density of 1/5 km ² . The proportion of landslide-affected areas is esti mated at 5 % of the area of their occurrence. In the mid- and high-mountain zones of Zhetysu, Ile and Kungei Alatau, the density of seismogenic rock falls varies from 1/100 to 1/50 km ² , and the proportion of rock fall-affected areas varies from 1 to 1,5 %. It is found that seismogenic rock falls have dammed 26 lakes, and the volume of nine such lakes exceeds 10 mil. m ³ . The largest rock fall-affected lakes is Upper Zhasylkol in the valley of the Aganakty river in Zhetysu Alatau with the volume of 44 mil. m ³ . Data from earthquake catalog were used to compile the map for the recurrence frequency of earthquakes of magni tude higher than 6, capable of causing seismogenic rock falls and landslides. It is found that during the last 130 years, in Ile and Kungei Alatau such earthquakes recurred four times. It is established that earthquakes with maximum magnitude 9 are possible in the mountainous regions of Southeastern Kazakhstan.

The characteristic features of the transformation of the territorial geospace structure in the African Christianity religious geospace during 1910-2010 have been revealed. African countries within the boundaries of 2010 are used as territorial cells that have been fixed retrospectively over the course of the period analyzed. We used indicators, such as Ryabtsev’s index of relative structural shifts and the trajectory of the demographic center of the Christianity to assess changes in the inertia level of the ter ritorial structure for the entire time interval as a whole and for each of the components of its 20-year long periods. It is found that to date the adherents of Christianity are extremely unevenly distributed in the countries of Africa; however, over the course of the period under consideration there was taking place a homogenization of their settlement. In accordance with changes of the values of the indicators used, we identified two development stages of geospace of African Christianity: colonial and post-colonial. It is determined that the colonial stage (1910-1970) is characterized by a “compression” of territorial structure from east and north, and by a predominance of the south-westward direction of movement of the demographic center because of a decrease in the proportion in the Christian population of East Africa first on account of Ethiopia and Madagascar (1910-1930) and then North Africa on account of Egypt and Algeria (1930-1950). The territorial structure of Christianity’s geospace during the post colonial stage is characterized by a higher degree of inertia at the background of the westward ”expansion” and the “compression” from the south as well as by a change of the vector of movement of the demographic center for north-westward.

The ecological functions and features of the geologic environment are investigated in terms of environmental geology. The current status of the geologic medium is characterized as a crisis, and the issues of its protection and rehabilitation are not ap propriately addressed in environmental protection activity of the state and businesses. The most critical ecological-geologic risks include destruction and deformation of geologic strata, huge amounts of industrial waste, oil spills, landscape and soil degrada tion, air and surface water pollution, seismic and mudflow phenomena, etc. Mining operations have the greatest negative influ ence on the environmental parameters of the geologic medium. Inadequate attention to issues related to the present state and protection of the geologic medium leads to accidents and crises in industrial installations. Ecological-geologic hazard hotspots have emerged in areas of intense extraction and processing of mineral raw materials. On the other hand, the environmental component of active mineral resource use is neglected when formulating the prospects for a further development of resource regions. The country’s major mining companies, active participants of the world market of mineral resources, are the most proficient in sustainable mineral resource use. In recent years, Russia saw a large-scale improvement of environmental legislation. Many legal innovations focusing on the preservation of the geologic medium are scattered among different laws. The legal and financial preconditions for the ecologization of mineral resource use are examined. The state plays a key role to stimulate the sustainable mining, processing and transportation of useful minerals. It has to change significantly the system to support the geologic medium protection.

This paper presents the results of a comparative spatial analysis of the regions of the Russian Federation in the context of the concept of a green economy with the use of two quantitative factors that characterize the well-being of the population: the payroll fund and the total wage fund and own revenues of the regional budgets per capita. The key environmental and eco nomic indicators used in this study are the indicators of eco-intensity for regional economic systems. They show the particular negative impact on the environment “produced” by the regional economy per unit of economic result. The following character istics of the region’s socio-ecological system are considered: the volume of atmospheric pollutant emissions in terms of 1000 rubles of the regional payroll fund and in terms of 1000 rubles of own income to regional budgets. The study revealed a high degree of heterogeneity of Russia’s regions in socio-environmental characteristics. It is shown that not only does the population of many natural resource and industrial regions live in conditions of increased anthropogenic pressure (both total and specific), but it also is not provided with additional resources of “collective well-being” through its own budget income, in spite of the unfavorable ecological and natural conditions. It is concluded that carbon regulation aimed at developing a low-carbon economy should not focus on identical quantitative indicators for the whole country.