A.V. Starchenko1,2, I.V. Del1,2, S.L. Odintsov2 1National Research Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russia 2V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: numerical weather prediction, wind gust, mesoscale model of numerical weather prediction TSUNM3
For short-term forecasting of weather periods characterized by strong winds with gusts in Tomsk, it is proposed to use the results of calculations based on the local weather numerical prediction model TSUNM3 (Tomsk State University Mesoscale Meteorological Model) in combination with semi-empirical formulas for estimating the scale of wind gusts. The comparison of the calculations and observations of meteorological parameters obtained for the conditions under consideration at the meteorological stations of the Common Use Center "Atmosphere" of IAO SB RAS, the AMIS-RF airport, and the Tomsk meteorological stations showed the prospects of using the model for numerical forecasting of this dangerous weather phenomenon. The results of the work are to be used for the development of an information and predictive system for early warning of dangerous wind gusts.
I.N. Smalikho, V.A. Banakh, A.M. Sherstobitov
V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: coherent Doppler lidar, signal-to-noise ratio non-stationary noise, radial velocity
The key factor determining the accuracy of pulsed coherent Doppler lidar (PCDL) wind speed measurements is the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Therefore, SNR information is important for interpreting measurement results. However, the known approaches to determining SNR from raw data measured by PCDL are not applicable in the case of a PCDL lidar created at the Wave Propagation Laboratory of Institute of Atmospheric Optics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, (WPL PCDL lidar) due to significant non-stationarity of the noise component of recorded signals. In this work, a new technique for determining the signal-to-noise ratio from raw data measured by a pulsed Doppler lidar (PCDL) accounting the non-stationarity of noise is developed. The technique was tested in an experiment with a Stream Line PCDL and the WPL PCDL lidar. By comparing SNR estimates from joint measurements by these lidars, the practical applicability of the suggested technique is confirmed.
I.N. Smalikho, V.A. Banakh, A.M. Sherstobitov
V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: coherent Doppler lidar, wind turbulence, internal gravity wave, spectral density, exponent
Issues of turbulent wave interaction in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) have not yet been sufficiently studied. In particular, the question of the influence of an internal gravity wave (IGW) arising in a thermally stable ABL on the spectrum of turbulent wind speed fluctuations remained open. In this work, using pulsed coherent Doppler lidar measurements, the influence of IGW on the shape of the curve for the spectral density of the vertical component of the wind velocity is studied. It has been established that IGW causes a significant change in the shape of the wind speed spectrum curve at frequencies below the boundary of the inertial turbulence interval. In this case, in the interval between the IGW frequency and the lower limit of the inertial interval, the frequency dependence of the spectrum is close to a power law. By analyzing 700 lidar estimates of vertical wind speed spectra, it was found that for such a frequency interval the exponent is on average equal to -3. The results of the work can be used to improve algorithms for numerical simulation of thermally stable ABL.
a:2:{s:4:"TYPE";s:4:"TEXT";s:4:"TEXT";s:44:"D.A. Marakasov, A.L. Afanas’ev, E.V. Gordeev";}
V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: non-Kolmogorov turbulence, energy spectrum, structure constant, outer scale, sonic weather stations
The basis for estimating turbulence characteristics using the primary output data of sonic weather stations is currently the classical Kolmogorov-Obukhov model of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence with a power-law structure function with an exponent of 2/3. In practice, such conditions are not always implemented in the atmosphere. In this article, to describe the non-Kolmogorov turbulence, an approach based on the use of a generalized power model with an exponent, a structural characteristic, and an outer scale estimated directly from the measured time series of instantaneous values of recorded meteorological parameters is suggested. The criteria of applicability of the model for estimating characteristics of real atmospheric turbulence are derived.
a:2:{s:4:"TEXT";s:46:"V.V. Kal’chikhin, A.A. Kobzev, A.A. Tikhomirov";s:4:"TYPE";s:4:"text";}
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: precipitation, rainfall intensity, rainfall kinetic energy, rain gage, disdrometer, soil erosion
A brief overview of tasks that require information about the energy characteristics of rains, as well as methods for obtaining this information, is given. A technique is described for determining the kinetic energy transferred by hydrometeors based on the microstructural characteristics of precipitation obtained using the optical precipitation gauge OPTIOS. The methodology usage is illustrated with measurement data of the heavy rainfall that fell in Tomsk on July 22, 2023. The influence of various microstructural parameters on the amount of kinetic energy brought by raindrops to the underlying surface is analyzed. The comparison is made with the values obtained by simplified methods. It is concluded that the capabilities of the optical precipitation gauge allow it to be successfully used in solving tasks that require an accurate assessment of the energy characteristics of rainfall.
Vladimir S. Nikulin, Andrey I. Pestunov
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
Keywords: reliability of computing systems, operational data, machine learning, Rosenblatt-Parzen method, smoothing parameter, failure distribution density
A new method for assessing the reliability of small computing systems that allows the generation of only small samples of operational data is proposed in the article. The result of applying the technique is the posterior failure distribution density, on the basis of which various reliability indicators can be calculated. The methodology consists of two stages: the first is the preparation of operational data, including detection of failures using machine learning methods, and the second is the construction of the failure distribution density using the adapted Rosenblatt-Parzen method. Increasing the efficiency of estimates using the proposed method is achieved by taking into account censored data, compensating for the shift of failure distribution densities and finding the optimal smoothing parameter.
Alexey N. Kislyakov, Anna N. Golubeva
The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Federation
Keywords: digital transformation, end-to-end technologies, information systems, education, management, participants in educational relations
The paper is devoted to the urgent problem of increasing the effectiveness of digital transformation mechanisms in the sphere of general education, aimed at improving the efficiency of functioning of general educational organizations. The analysis of normative legal acts regulating state regulation in the field of information technology application in education, domestic and foreign literature devoted to digital transformation of the economy and society as a whole has been carried out. The main directions of digital transformation of education were analyzed. The lack of elaboration of the issues of digital transformation of general education along with a large number of publications related to higher education institutions is noted. The main technological transformations preceding the current stage of introducing end-to-end technologies in the sphere of general education in the Russian Federation are highlighted. Emphasis is placed on the necessity of digital transformation of general education management. The problems of introducing end-to-end technologies in the sphere of general education management are considered against the background of the acute need to master new technologies and the transition of the economy to a new stage of development. The tasks of digital transformation of education have been studied and the analysis of the reasons hindering the introduction of modern digital technologies has been carried out, which allowed us to identify the need to update not only the methods of conducting the educational process with the use of digital educational content, but also to qualitatively change the management system of a modern educational organization. The study showed that the digital transformation of general education cannot take place without state regulation and research in the field of correlation between the classroom and digital component. Recommendations on the implementation of projects in the system of general education are given, which allow to eliminate the duplication of management functions, reduce the cost of software development and implementation at different levels of education management.
Anna V. Generalova1, Yuriy A. Malyukov1, Aleksey O. Nedosekin2, Zinaida I. Abdulaeva3 1The Kosygin State University of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation 2Institute of Financial Technologies LLC, Pskov, Russian Federation 3North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Keywords: sectoral economic sustainability (resilience), mobilization measures in the economy, public-private mobilization partnership (PPMP), intersectoral syndicate, matrix aggregate calculator (MAC), 4 × 6 strategic matrix
The purpose of the article is to establish the principles of organizing the light industry and adjacent sectors of the Russian economy in the context of mobilization activities in the economy, in order to ensure the uninterrupted supply of products to meet the needs of the troops within the framework of the state order. Methods. The industry analysis is carried out under two main assumptions: a) the industry should be reformed, on the terms of public-private mobilization partnership (PPMP); b) relations between the light industry and related economic sectors should be built on the terms of an inter-industry syndicate (cluster, strategic alliance). The assessment of the stability of companies in the light industry sector is carried out on the basis of a matrix aggregate calculator (MAC). The return on equity of companies is analyzed using the DuPont formula. Results. Based on the simulation results, it is shown that the industry maintains economic stability provided that three basic conditions are met: a) it maintains an irreducible net profitability at the level of 5-7 %; b) forms an irreducible turnover of its assets at the level of 1.5 times a year; c) is credited by the state under the supplier’s factoring scheme, which gives a level of financial leverage of about 1.6. All this together should lead to a return on industry equity (ROE) of about 20 % per annum, which guarantees a rapid attraction of private capital to the industry, with the issuance of additional state guarantees for capital protection (a real option for business). Discussion. A more detailed modeling of sectoral economic stability requires the correct selection of modeling factors by groups: Threats, Opportunities, BSC, Risks, Chances, Decisions. A special modeling of the industry corporate culture is needed, using the approaches of related specialties. Conclusion. The GFMP principle guarantees the sustainable functioning of the Russian economy in the conditions of a period of maximum and medium levels of response and high readiness. The conventional wisdom that it is possible to ensure the sovereignty of the country by keeping the peacetime economy in the rear is untenable.
