V.S. Mkhitaryan1, S.S. Mikhaylova2 1National Research University, Myasnitskaya str., 20, Moscow, 101000, Russia 2East Siberia State University of Technology and Management, Kluchevskaya str., 40B, Building 1, Ulan-Ude, Republic of Buryatia, 670013, Russia
Keywords: денежные доходы населения, валовой региональный продукт, занятость населения, заработная плата, региональная дифференциация, monetary incomes of the population, gross regional product, employment, wages, regional differentiation
Subsection: ECONOMIC STATISTICS
This article analyzes the differentiation of budget sources according to major regional economic indicators, influencing the formation of the tax base. It is calculated rank correlation coefficient in terms of GRP per capita of the subjects of the Russian Federation to assess the structural changes of regions with respect to their mutual position of the period of 1995-2013. The relationship of wages is studied by economic activity, sex, age and education in the territorial aspect. A direct relationship is detected between the level of wages and economic activity, employment in the regions. As the suggestion to improve, the selfsufficiency of territories is offered to increase innovative activity and implementation of competitive advantage, mainly due to the competitive advantages of the region.
Ya.M. Mirkin1, V.N. Salin2, I.V. Dobashina2 1Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Profsoyuznaya str., 23, Moscow, 117997, Russia 2Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Leningradsky ave., 49, Moscow, 125993, Russia
Keywords: финансовое развитие, финансовая глубина, статистический анализ, межстрановые сопоставления, международная финансовая статистика, financial development, financial depth, statistical analysis, cross-country comparisons, international financial statistics
Subsection: ECONOMIC STATISTICS
The article contains cross-country comparisons of financial depth (more than 100 countries, 2000-2013) to confirm by modern statistical data the positive relationship between the financial development and the economic growth. It justifies the differences in financial depth comparing to the developed countries and emerging markets, explains the challenges of the gaps in financial development of Russia and the developed and new industrial countries.
The article deals with the problem of collecting resumptive indicators of social economic phenomena and processes, taking into account the necessity of temporal development of the phenomena, the introduction of new approaches to the aggregation. Proprietory technology of individual features aggregation into integral index, which takes into account nonequivalence of the feature and their temporaty changes, is suggested. The individual features characterize different aspects of complex phenomena. Much attention is paid to calculating of generalizing indicators weight Indexes in a dynamic aspect. The calculated index can be matched both in space and in time, providing a comparative description of a complex phenomenon, allowing to judge its dynamics, making final conclusions more visible and unequivocal. The article investigates the scope of application of the proposed methodology in the economic and statistical analysis of economic and social phenomena.
K.P. Gluschenko
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Lavrentyev Ave., 17, Akademgorodok, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: индекс потребительских цен, потребительская корзина, смещение ИПЦ, consumer price index, consumer basket, CPI bias
Subsection: ECONOMIC STATISTICS
The mass media frequently accuse official statistics of underestimating the inflation rate (consumer price index - CPI) by half to two-thirds. This paper analyzes potential sources of distortion of the official CPI, concluding that systematic errors causing underestimating are absent, and deliberate distortions are impossible. It also analyzes a number of alternative estimates of inflation and demonstrates that they are based either on the use of a consumer baskets that do not correspond to any real pattern of consumption and deliberately overstate rise in the price level, or on some indirect rationale that does not bear criticism. The only alternative estimate that can be taken seriously is greater than the 2005 official CPI by 2 percent points, that is, by 20 % rather than by a factor of 2 to 3.
The economic crisis and the sanctions sharpened the problems of the Russian economy. Innovation development seems to be a real way to cope with the problems. In searching for reserves of economic growth it is reasonable to pay attention to the significant role of small enterprises in creating and using innovations. The analysis showed that small enterprise in Russia produce competitive products and services for internal and foreign markets. The most important groups of small enterprises have been found on the base of their distribution on the number of employees. Clustering and Kohonen maps analysis allowed to segment the Russian regions into three homo geneous groups on innovative development. The results of the research give the oppor tunity to make right decisions in economic policy in regions and in Russia as a whole.
V.N. Afanasyev
Orenburg State University, Victory Ave., 13, Orenburg, 460018, Russia
Keywords: изменение климата, статистическое исследование, многофакторный анализ урожайности сельскохозяйственных культур, climate change, a statistical study, multivariate analysis of crop yields as an integral indicator of climate dynamics
Subsection: ECONOMIC STATISTICS
There is currently no method of determining the dynamics of the climate change area. Do not designed and methodology, definitions quantifying average annual climate change in the region. We propose a method for predicting exploded based on the establishment of the dynamics of the individual elements and the formation of the state of the weather forecast on the projected year. The method of multivariate analysis of crop yields generated statistical model of multi-dependence. Substituting the resulting model indicators of weather elements for years, can be obtained investigated the dynamics of generalized weather conditions. Economic analysis of the data in comparison with the actual crop yield provides a picture of the distribution of good and bad years in the studied time interval. The problem of studying the intensity of climate change area is particularly relevant in areas of risk farming. The question may arise about the different levels of meteorologists on the dynamics of climatic conditions on the planet. In our opinion, the most objective judgment about climate change will be given on climate change area on the basis of output indicators, such as yield!
K.A. Akopyan
Armenian State University of Economics, Nalbandyan str., 128, Yerevan, 0025, Republic of Armenia
Keywords: экономический рост, официальная статистика, методология и концепции СНС, индекс физического объема ВВП к 1990 году, авторская оценка, национальное богатство, неучтенная (теневая) экономика, статистический учет, economic growth, official statistics, methodology and concepts of SNA, an index of physical volume of GDP by 1990, an author's assessment, national wealth, unaccounted (shadow) economy, the statistical account
Subsection: ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Main objective of this article is identification and justification of divergences of levels and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (including - branch) the Republic of Armenia for the Post-Soviet period on the basis of studying and comparison of the above-named indicators of some countries the Commonwealth of Independent States, and also by improvement of a statistical assessment of unaccounted (shadow) economy to plan sequence of priorities which decision will result in adequacy of official statistical data to actual problems of management.
K.Y. Muradov
National Research University, Myasnitskaya str., 20, 101000, Moscow, Russia
Keywords: цепочки создания добавленной стоимости, экспорт, таблицы “затраты-выпуск”, value chains, exports, input-output tables
Subsection: INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES AND THE VALUE-ADDED CHAIN
The Framework of the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2020 stipulates that «without penetration to new markets of goods and services with high value added share, Russia’s role in the global economic development and its efficient participation in the international division of labour are doomed to decline». The priorities of the social and economic policies, according to the Framework, include «increasing integration of manufacturing industries in the world economy on the basis of their involvement in the global value chains». In this regard, it is widely believed that Russia, due to the orientation of is exports towards raw materials, is not involved in the international production networks, and the inclusion in these networks requires a radical diversification of the economy with the accelerated development of its manufacturing industries. An economic and statistical tool, which has recently become available to researchers, is capable of producing relatively accurate estimates with regard to the above statements, and to analyse the position of Russia in global value chains. A computational method based on inter-country input-output tables has been proposed to identify the flows of value added driven by final domestic demand and exports, and to distinguish their sectoral and national origin and destination. Using the inter-country input-output computational framework and new OECD input-output data in this study leads to a conclusion that Russia’s integration is quite high in the downstream value chain. It is the mining sector - i.e. mostly extraction of oil and gas - that is responsible for this level of integration that may not be optimal, but is significant by global measurements. Meanwhile, a comparison with other countries casts doubt on the assumption that the reliance on manufacturing industries would allow Russia to derive greater value added from its exports.
S.A. Suspitsyn
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the RAS, Academician Lavrentyev Ave., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: валовой региональный продукт, оперативная статистика, опережающие показатели, оценки ВРП, general regional product (GRP), current statistics, leading indicators, estimations of GRP
Subsection: INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES AND THE VALUE-ADDED CHAIN
Processing of the regional statistics data is arranged in such way that the first results of the last year under report on limited circle of indicators are released to public at the end of the 1st quarter of the next year, and by the end of the 2nd quarter, the first volume of the year-book «Regions of Russia» is issued as a separate document, with the data of the previous year, where the indicator GRP is absent. Thus, current results of the year 2014 became available for broad circle of readers in March 2015, and in June 2015 there comes out the 1st volume «Regions of Russia» with the processed data for 2014, with the only exception: the GRP indicator for 2014 will appear only in the statistics book of 2016. In this paper we put forward a method for early estimating the GRP on the base of current regional statistics, which allow run ahead 1-1.5 years in comparison with the appearance of this indicator in public media. Results of test calculations and evaluations of accuracy of the suggested method for estimating the GRP are provided.
I.P. Mamiy, M.A. Ivashchenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Lenin Hills, 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia
Keywords: энергетическая статистика, топливно-энергетический баланс, прогнозный топливно-энергетический баланс, энергетический сектор, энергетическая стратегия России-2035, energy statistics, energy balance, energy balance forecast, energy sector, Russian energy strategy-2035
Subsection: INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES AND THE VALUE-ADDED CHAIN
The Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035 defines the range of tasks for the reorganization of the energy sector of the country. To achieve these goals it is necessary to improve public information and statistical base. Statistical model of the energy balance of Russia could be an effective tool. Existing energy balance forecasts are based on the scientific analysis of the Russian energy sector. However, they represent only an illustration of the positive scenario of development of the Russian economy. A new approach to formation of energy balance forecast taking into account the shortcomings of pure mathematical modeling is suggested. Analysis of existing trends, determination of invariant trends and identification of possible scenarios and forecasts for the energy sector is offered.